Unhappy Picture

We’re going to need a lot more power plants.

According to the Department of Energy, global demand for energy will increase by 50 percent over the next two decades. That’s a huge increase, and it seems even bigger when you compare it to population growth rate of about 1.14 percent per year (thanks Wikipedia). In other words, the Earth will have a few more people every year, and all of them will be using a lot more power.

And according to the report released this week, most of that power will continue to come from oil, coal and nuclear. There are so many reasons why this is depressing I just don’t know where to start.

First, global warming. Burning more fossil fuels will only make our problems on this front worse.

Then there’s supply and demand. Fossil fuels are finite resources. How much is left to be extracted? I don’t know, and neither does anyone else, but we can be certain we’ll eventually run out, and there are a lot of smart people who say the world’s oil cup is less than half-full now.

The report said that coal use will increase by about 2 percent per year, with China accounting for almost three-fourths of that, and oil consumption will increase by a third, to about 113 million barrels per day. I was in China several years ago and was surprised to see how many people relied on coal for cooking and heating; once I noticed that, I certainly wasn’t surprised to look up at the sky and see only a haze.

And the really bad news: renewable energy will increase by only 2.1 percent per year, and most of that will be hydro plants in developing countries.

Let’s recap: in 2008, global oil prices are going through the roof, the world is clamoring for alternatives, and there are plenty of people working hard on compelling wind, solar an other viable renewable sources. But over the next two decades, the Department of Energy sees nothing to indicate that alternative energy sources will make any significant gains. Am I the only person who thinks there’s something wrong with this picture?